MathLesson 3 of 3

Probability & Combinatorics

Taught in English

Questo esame si sostiene in inglese: le lezioni e le domande sono in inglese. L'interfaccia resta in italiano.

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Key formulas

Addition Rule

P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)

Independent Events

P(A∩B)=P(A)·P(B) (if independent)

Bayes' Theorem

P(A|B)=P(B|A)·P(A) / P(B)

Permutations

P(n,k)=n! / (n−k)! (order matters)

Combinations

C(n,k)=n! / (k!·(n−k)!) (order doesn't)

Normal Symmetry

P(−a<Z<a)=1−2·P(Z>a)

Part 1 of 1

The Guessing Strategy

Bocconi scores +1 correct / 0 blank / −0.20 wrong. This changes how you approach uncertain questions.

Expected value from guessing:

Blind guess (5 options): EV=+0.04Eliminate 1 option (4 left): EV=+0.10Eliminate 2 options (3 left): EV=+0.20

Rule: if you can confidently eliminate at least one option, always guess. Only leave blank if you have truly no idea. Every informed guess that eliminates even one option is statistically worth making.

Worked example

Question has 5 options. You know option A is wrong. Now guess from B/C/D/E. EV = (1/4)×1 + (3/4)×(−0.20) = 0.25 − 0.15 = +0.10 points per guess. Over 10 such questions, you expect +1 point net — equivalent to one free correct answer.

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Probability & Combinatorics

The Guessing StrategyThe Guessing Strategy

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Probability & Combinatorics

The Guessing StrategyThe Guessing Strategy

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The Guessing Strategy

The Guessing Strategy